Evidence for global warming has mounted but public awareness of the threat has shrunk, due to a cold northern winter and finger-pointing at the UN's climate experts, a top scientist warned Wednesday.
James Hansen, a leading NASA scientist whose testimony to the US Congress in 1988 was a landmark in the history of climate change, said he was worried by "the large gap" in knowledge between specialists and the public, including politicians.
"That gap has increased substantially in the last year," Hansen told a press conference during a visit to Paris.
"While the science was becoming clearer, the public's perception became less clear, in part because of the unusually cold winter in both North America and Europe, and in part because of the inappropriate over-emphasis on small minor errors in IPCC documents and because of the so-called Climategate."
The IPCC -- the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -- is under fire for several errors that appeared in a key 2007 report.
Its authors have acknowledged the mistakes, but say the overall conclusions of the report, that man-made greenhouse gases are changing the climate, remain solid.
The "Climategate" affair relates to stolen emails exchanged among British scientists that, sceptics said, showed they had ignored evidence that natural, rather than man-made, causes were to blame for climate change. The scientists have been cleared by a British parliamentary panel.
"The winter was not cold if you look over the whole world: December, January, February was the second warmest in 130 years," Hansen noted.
"It was cool at mid-latitudes in the northern hemisphere but unusually warm in the Arctic and that has a simple explanation: there is a chaotic variation in the pressure in the Arctic region. But it's just chaotic variation, there is no reason that it will be repeated."
He added: "We have to look at the frequency of events. Seven out of the last 10 winters in Europe have been warmer than the long-term average, and eight out of 10 in the United States.
"So the climate dice are being loaded at a rate which is in very close agreement with what was predicted ago a few decades ago based on the expected global warming."
Hansen is director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, but stressed he was speaking in a private capacity.
He blasted governments for "ignoring... basic scientific facts" by continuing to depend on fossil fuels, build more coal-fired plants and drill for oil in the deep ocean and the Arctic.
And he said that the poor outcome of December's climate summit in Copenhagen was predictable.
"Frankly, there was a realisation that you can't have 180 countries making the initial agreement, it has to be the major players. So, Europe, the US and China, and probably India, need to agree that there needs to be a carbon price and then it's very easy to make that global."
Reference: James Hansen, NASA
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Showing posts with label IPCC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IPCC. Show all posts
Wednesday, 12 May 2010
Saturday, 13 March 2010
The Case for Global Warming Stronger Than Ever
One of the many crimes that climate scientists have been accused of lately is that they claim absolute certainty in a field of research fraught with uncertainty. Sure, the planet is warming, say skeptics, but that's happened throughout Earth's history, long before humans were burning fossil fuels. So, how can we be sure this isn't just a natural phenomenon?
Yet a search through the much vilified Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports shows that absolute certainty is notably absent. In the most recent document, for example, published in 2007, the authors write: "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG [that is, human-generated greenhouse gas] concentrations."
If that doesn't sound definitive, it's because, as the authors freely admit, it isn't: climate science continues to evolve as new evidence comes in. Indeed, back in 2006, even before the latest IPCC report was complete, researchers in Britain were already planning to launch an update. Helmed by the U.K.'s Met Office (formerly known as the Meteorological Office), the update, published March 5 in the journal Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, is based on more than 100 peer-reviewed post-IPCC studies. The new data may shift the evidence for climate change, but none of it weakens what the IPCC said three years ago.
By looking at a wide range of observations from all over the world, the Met Office study concludes that the fingerprint of human influence on climate is stronger than ever. "We can say with a very high significance level that the effects we see in the climate cannot be attributed to any other forcings [factors that push the climate in one direction or another]," says study co-author Gabriele Hegerl of the University of Edinburgh.
Plenty of these climate effects had already been observed at the time of the 2007 IPCC report, including warming temperatures, shifts in rainfall (wet regions getting wetter, dry regions getting drier) and the increase in summer meltback of Arctic sea ice. Those patterns have continued, and in some cases gotten worse.
Some entirely new observations have been recorded as well. In its 2007 report, the IPCC did not include the impact of Greenland's or Antarctica's melting glaciers in its estimate of future sea-level rise, saying it lacked sufficient data. But now the speed-up of flow from these glaciers has been documented. And while the IPCC noted in 2007 that every continent had warmed throughout the 20th century except Antarctica, that continent has now been shown to be warming as well — very likely due to man-made influences, says Hegerl. (See the top 10 scientific discoveries of 2009.)
There's plenty more evidence in the Met Office report to support global warming. But the question from critics remains: how can we be sure this isn't just a natural phenomenon? Scientists haven't done a good enough job of communicating how they distinguish human versus natural influences, says Hegerl. The answer lies in climate models — massive computer simulations that allow the scientists to project climate effects in various scenarios, including those in which humans do not emit any greenhouses at all. "We go out of our way to check out other explanations — by assuming it's all explained by solar activity, or by solar activity plus volcanoes, or by combinations of any of the other natural forcings known to affect climate," says Hegerl.
According to the models, none of those combinations can produce the climate patterns currently being observed in the real world. Add the greenhouse gases that we know humans are generating (and which we've known since the 1800s tend to warm the Earth, all other things being equal), and the simulations finally come close to matching the real world. Its possible, albeit far-fetched, that the simulations are defective. It is even less possible that all of them (and there are many) are defective in the direction of overstating humanity's contribution to warming.
Again, none of the evidence adds up to absolute certainty, a rare commodity in any field of science. On Wednesday, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon announced that an independent panel of scientists, representing national science academies from around the world, would review the IPCC's research procedures — an effort to account for the 2007 report's mistakes, for which the IPCC has come under hard criticism. But while the U.N. group may benefit publicly from more transparency, it won't change the fact that more than 99% of the scientific details in the 2007 report have already withstood the most intense scrutiny. The fact that climate change evidence that was "very likely" a few years ago has now been declared likelier still by the comprehensive Met Office report suggests that the evidence for human-caused climate change is getting better all the time.
Reference: Time. Michael D. Lemonick is the senior science writer for Climate Central.
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1971702,00.html#ixzz0i3FdVE7B
URBAN ENERGY
Our mission: “To provide and install, sustainable, world class, clean energy products with the highest level of service and care."
Urban Energy is an innovative organisation specialising in the financing, design and installation of economic and environmentally sound solar powered energy systems for commercial property (private and public) and domestic dwellings. Our expertise in the field of Government sponsored funding programmes and solar power products will provide individuals and organisations with an excellent opportunity to overcome capital cost barriers, save money on energy bills, increase profit margins, increase the value of their property and reduce their carbon footprint.
Urban Energy employ the very best engineers in this field, all of which are fully qualified, MCS certified and Government approved to carry out this task, complying with strict guidelines and are members of the Solar Trade Association.
For further information about Urban Energy products and services:
Call: 0800 232 1624
Email: info@urbanenergy.org.uk
Website: http://www.urbanenergy.org.uk/
Yet a search through the much vilified Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports shows that absolute certainty is notably absent. In the most recent document, for example, published in 2007, the authors write: "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG [that is, human-generated greenhouse gas] concentrations."
If that doesn't sound definitive, it's because, as the authors freely admit, it isn't: climate science continues to evolve as new evidence comes in. Indeed, back in 2006, even before the latest IPCC report was complete, researchers in Britain were already planning to launch an update. Helmed by the U.K.'s Met Office (formerly known as the Meteorological Office), the update, published March 5 in the journal Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, is based on more than 100 peer-reviewed post-IPCC studies. The new data may shift the evidence for climate change, but none of it weakens what the IPCC said three years ago.
By looking at a wide range of observations from all over the world, the Met Office study concludes that the fingerprint of human influence on climate is stronger than ever. "We can say with a very high significance level that the effects we see in the climate cannot be attributed to any other forcings [factors that push the climate in one direction or another]," says study co-author Gabriele Hegerl of the University of Edinburgh.
Plenty of these climate effects had already been observed at the time of the 2007 IPCC report, including warming temperatures, shifts in rainfall (wet regions getting wetter, dry regions getting drier) and the increase in summer meltback of Arctic sea ice. Those patterns have continued, and in some cases gotten worse.
Some entirely new observations have been recorded as well. In its 2007 report, the IPCC did not include the impact of Greenland's or Antarctica's melting glaciers in its estimate of future sea-level rise, saying it lacked sufficient data. But now the speed-up of flow from these glaciers has been documented. And while the IPCC noted in 2007 that every continent had warmed throughout the 20th century except Antarctica, that continent has now been shown to be warming as well — very likely due to man-made influences, says Hegerl. (See the top 10 scientific discoveries of 2009.)
There's plenty more evidence in the Met Office report to support global warming. But the question from critics remains: how can we be sure this isn't just a natural phenomenon? Scientists haven't done a good enough job of communicating how they distinguish human versus natural influences, says Hegerl. The answer lies in climate models — massive computer simulations that allow the scientists to project climate effects in various scenarios, including those in which humans do not emit any greenhouses at all. "We go out of our way to check out other explanations — by assuming it's all explained by solar activity, or by solar activity plus volcanoes, or by combinations of any of the other natural forcings known to affect climate," says Hegerl.
According to the models, none of those combinations can produce the climate patterns currently being observed in the real world. Add the greenhouse gases that we know humans are generating (and which we've known since the 1800s tend to warm the Earth, all other things being equal), and the simulations finally come close to matching the real world. Its possible, albeit far-fetched, that the simulations are defective. It is even less possible that all of them (and there are many) are defective in the direction of overstating humanity's contribution to warming.
Again, none of the evidence adds up to absolute certainty, a rare commodity in any field of science. On Wednesday, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon announced that an independent panel of scientists, representing national science academies from around the world, would review the IPCC's research procedures — an effort to account for the 2007 report's mistakes, for which the IPCC has come under hard criticism. But while the U.N. group may benefit publicly from more transparency, it won't change the fact that more than 99% of the scientific details in the 2007 report have already withstood the most intense scrutiny. The fact that climate change evidence that was "very likely" a few years ago has now been declared likelier still by the comprehensive Met Office report suggests that the evidence for human-caused climate change is getting better all the time.
Reference: Time. Michael D. Lemonick is the senior science writer for Climate Central.
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1971702,00.html#ixzz0i3FdVE7B
URBAN ENERGY
Our mission: “To provide and install, sustainable, world class, clean energy products with the highest level of service and care."
Urban Energy is an innovative organisation specialising in the financing, design and installation of economic and environmentally sound solar powered energy systems for commercial property (private and public) and domestic dwellings. Our expertise in the field of Government sponsored funding programmes and solar power products will provide individuals and organisations with an excellent opportunity to overcome capital cost barriers, save money on energy bills, increase profit margins, increase the value of their property and reduce their carbon footprint.
Urban Energy employ the very best engineers in this field, all of which are fully qualified, MCS certified and Government approved to carry out this task, complying with strict guidelines and are members of the Solar Trade Association.
For further information about Urban Energy products and services:
Call: 0800 232 1624
Email: info@urbanenergy.org.uk
Website: http://www.urbanenergy.org.uk/
Saturday, 27 February 2010
Global Warming? Rubbish! Just another way of taxing the public, isn't it?
1. People say the world isn’t really getting warmer, some years are just hotter than others, and it varies/goes around in cycles.
a. The 10 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1997. That’s a fact, based on recorded temperatures since 1850 (when reliable records began). Over the last 100 years the Earth has warmed by about 0.75 degrees Celsius and the speed it is warming at is getting faster. These days the UK Spring arrives about 10 days earlier than it did in the 1970s. In 159 years of records, the 10 hottest years have been in the last 12 years.
b. Arctic sea ice is melting, the extent it reaches has shrunk by about 10% every 10 years since the late 70s. The smallest amounts of Arctic summer ice on record were in the last 3 years: 2007-2009. In a few decades, large parts of the Arctic Ocean are expected to have no late summer sea-ice at all.
2. People say we’ve nothing to do with it.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere have gone up 38% since 1750 - the year the industrial revolution started. Rising levels of greenhouse gases are directly linked to human activity like burning fossil fuels and clearing forests. There is a clear link between more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and global warming.
3. But not all scientists agree though, right?
The overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree that human induced climate change poses a huge threat to the world. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is not run by any government – ‘intergovernmental’ means it answers to all 192 governments signed up to it. Its reports are written by independent scientists. It is one of the most rigorous scientific bodies that exists. It brings together many thousands of scientists from countries all over the world to put together the best assessments of climate science available. What about the leaked emails from the University of East Anglia? Don’t they undermine the science? There is an independent review looking at this incident. But there is an overwhelming consensus, based on decades of climate science and the work of thousands of scientists around the world which says that climate change is real and a major threat.
4. It’s too late, we just need to accept it.
This international scientific panel says we need to stop the world getting more than 2 degrees warmer if we want to avoid dangerous climate change. After that it becomes harder to produce food and competition for water, sea level rises and loss of species get much worse. We've got the technologies we need for a low-carbon world we just need to go for it now. It'll cost much less to go low carbon than it will to let climate change happen.
5. A bit of melting ice and slightly hotter summers, what’s the problem?
Global sea levels have already risen by 10 centimetres in the last 50 years, thanks to melting ice and warming oceans. This is already threatening low-lying countries, such as islands and Bangladesh. Millions more people are expected to be flooded every year by 2080. Latest predictions suggest the sea could rise by 1 metre this century. In Europe alone this could affect over 20 million people. And it looks like the sea is rising more quickly now than in the 20th century.
6. Some countries have always had droughts, it’s nothing new.
Severe droughts are now twice as common as they were in 1970. More drought is affecting which crops we can grow effectively. Global demand for food is expected to nearly double by 2050. But by 2025, lack of water could mean we produce a third less of the volume of cereals we currently eat – that’s the same as losing the entire grain crops of India and the US combined.
7. Global warming is just to do with natural changes in the Sun.
Scientists are clear that there is strong evidence that changes in solar radiation could not have caused the rapid warming we have seen over the past fifty years. The Met Office has stated that since the Industrial Revolution, additional greenhouse gases have had about ten times the effect on the climate as changes in the Sun’s output.
8. We’ve all got a lot on our plate – let’s worry about it later.
Even if all greenhouse gas emissions stopped tomorrow, we are already locked into a global temperature rise of at least 1.4 degrees Celsius (since 1750) because of the delayed impact between emissions and temperature. It is already happening, and we need to act now to stop it getting much worse.
9. It won’t happen to us though.
Developed countries suffer impacts too. The 2003 heat wave in western Europe, which caused 35,000 deaths (2,000 in the UK), is already twice as likely to happen again next year. By the 2040s Europe will consider such a summer normal. By 2060s they will consider it cool.
10. Surely it’s only the odd polar bear, who cares?
Species are already being forced to migrate or adapt. Scientists think that around 20% of species will become extinct with 2 degrees of warming – and it will be a real challenge, even if we act right now, to keep to that limit.
Reference: Act On CO2penhagen
URBAN ENERGY
Our mission: “To provide and install, sustainable, world class, clean energy products with the highest level of service and care”.
The Feed in Tariff (FiT) announced earlier this month, for introduction in April 2010, means that some households installing solar electric photovoltaic (PV) panels could earn > £1000/year for 25 years.
These new tariffs will allow people to turn their homes into mini-power stations. For householders who have a south-facing roof, PV panels are really worth looking at. Not only are they a sound financial investment, they will also allow you to do your part in tackling climate change.
0% interest instalment payment program available for domestic solar thermal and photovoltaic systems.
For further information about Urban Energy products and services:
Call: 0800 232 1624
Email: info@urbanenergy.org.uk
Website: http://www.urbanenergy.org.uk/
a. The 10 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1997. That’s a fact, based on recorded temperatures since 1850 (when reliable records began). Over the last 100 years the Earth has warmed by about 0.75 degrees Celsius and the speed it is warming at is getting faster. These days the UK Spring arrives about 10 days earlier than it did in the 1970s. In 159 years of records, the 10 hottest years have been in the last 12 years.
b. Arctic sea ice is melting, the extent it reaches has shrunk by about 10% every 10 years since the late 70s. The smallest amounts of Arctic summer ice on record were in the last 3 years: 2007-2009. In a few decades, large parts of the Arctic Ocean are expected to have no late summer sea-ice at all.
2. People say we’ve nothing to do with it.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere have gone up 38% since 1750 - the year the industrial revolution started. Rising levels of greenhouse gases are directly linked to human activity like burning fossil fuels and clearing forests. There is a clear link between more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and global warming.
3. But not all scientists agree though, right?
The overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree that human induced climate change poses a huge threat to the world. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is not run by any government – ‘intergovernmental’ means it answers to all 192 governments signed up to it. Its reports are written by independent scientists. It is one of the most rigorous scientific bodies that exists. It brings together many thousands of scientists from countries all over the world to put together the best assessments of climate science available. What about the leaked emails from the University of East Anglia? Don’t they undermine the science? There is an independent review looking at this incident. But there is an overwhelming consensus, based on decades of climate science and the work of thousands of scientists around the world which says that climate change is real and a major threat.
4. It’s too late, we just need to accept it.
This international scientific panel says we need to stop the world getting more than 2 degrees warmer if we want to avoid dangerous climate change. After that it becomes harder to produce food and competition for water, sea level rises and loss of species get much worse. We've got the technologies we need for a low-carbon world we just need to go for it now. It'll cost much less to go low carbon than it will to let climate change happen.
5. A bit of melting ice and slightly hotter summers, what’s the problem?
Global sea levels have already risen by 10 centimetres in the last 50 years, thanks to melting ice and warming oceans. This is already threatening low-lying countries, such as islands and Bangladesh. Millions more people are expected to be flooded every year by 2080. Latest predictions suggest the sea could rise by 1 metre this century. In Europe alone this could affect over 20 million people. And it looks like the sea is rising more quickly now than in the 20th century.
6. Some countries have always had droughts, it’s nothing new.
Severe droughts are now twice as common as they were in 1970. More drought is affecting which crops we can grow effectively. Global demand for food is expected to nearly double by 2050. But by 2025, lack of water could mean we produce a third less of the volume of cereals we currently eat – that’s the same as losing the entire grain crops of India and the US combined.
7. Global warming is just to do with natural changes in the Sun.
Scientists are clear that there is strong evidence that changes in solar radiation could not have caused the rapid warming we have seen over the past fifty years. The Met Office has stated that since the Industrial Revolution, additional greenhouse gases have had about ten times the effect on the climate as changes in the Sun’s output.
8. We’ve all got a lot on our plate – let’s worry about it later.
Even if all greenhouse gas emissions stopped tomorrow, we are already locked into a global temperature rise of at least 1.4 degrees Celsius (since 1750) because of the delayed impact between emissions and temperature. It is already happening, and we need to act now to stop it getting much worse.
9. It won’t happen to us though.
Developed countries suffer impacts too. The 2003 heat wave in western Europe, which caused 35,000 deaths (2,000 in the UK), is already twice as likely to happen again next year. By the 2040s Europe will consider such a summer normal. By 2060s they will consider it cool.
10. Surely it’s only the odd polar bear, who cares?
Species are already being forced to migrate or adapt. Scientists think that around 20% of species will become extinct with 2 degrees of warming – and it will be a real challenge, even if we act right now, to keep to that limit.
Reference: Act On CO2penhagen
URBAN ENERGY
Our mission: “To provide and install, sustainable, world class, clean energy products with the highest level of service and care”.
The Feed in Tariff (FiT) announced earlier this month, for introduction in April 2010, means that some households installing solar electric photovoltaic (PV) panels could earn > £1000/year for 25 years.
These new tariffs will allow people to turn their homes into mini-power stations. For householders who have a south-facing roof, PV panels are really worth looking at. Not only are they a sound financial investment, they will also allow you to do your part in tackling climate change.
0% interest instalment payment program available for domestic solar thermal and photovoltaic systems.
For further information about Urban Energy products and services:
Call: 0800 232 1624
Email: info@urbanenergy.org.uk
Website: http://www.urbanenergy.org.uk/
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